Skip to main content

Inflation swaps and TIPS

Econbrowser has a post on inflation expectations as measured via TIPS spreads. This links back to an earlier comment I made on Glasner's blog, in which inflation swaps are posited as an alternative to TIPS spreads. Here is the comment from Econbrowser:

"One might worry about characteristics in the TIPS market distorting the estimates of the real yields."
 and
 "The real yield curve starts at five years, so one can’t be sure what the real yield curve suggests for the horizon less than five years. "
 Why not use zero coupon inflation swap prices? They (supposedly) don't suffer from some of the same distortions as TIPS (liquidity premia), and you can get shorter terms.
 For instance, here is the 2 year inflation swap.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USSWIT2:IND
Just subtract the 2 year swap rate from the nominal 2 year rate and you have the 2 year real rate. 


See the Cleveland Fed's explanation of their methodology for measuring inflation expectations, which includes the use of  inflation swaps

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

A way to make anonymous online donations

Paying for things online usually means giving up plenty of privacy. But this needn't always be the case. Last night I donated to a local charity via their website and didn't have to give up any of my personal information. The trick for achieving a degree of online payments anonymity? Not bitcoin, Zcash, or Monero. I used a product created by old fashioned bankers: a non-reloadable prepaid debit card. (I wrote about these cards here and here ). Had I used a credit card or PayPal, all sorts of parties would have gotten access to my personal information including the site owner, the payments processor, my bank, the site owner's bank, the credit card networks, my partner, and many more. To get a good feel for how many different parties touch an online payment, check out this graphic by Rebecka Ricks, which shows how PayPal shares your information. A powerful visualization by @baricks showing how PayPal shares your data: https://t.co/vd8w8d8xn6 ht @akadiyala Due to Europe...

Stock as a medium of exchange

American Depository Receipt (ADR) for Sony Corp You've heard the story before. It goes something like this. There's one unique good in this world that serves as a universal vehicle by which we conduct every one of our economic transactions. We call this good "money". Quarrels often start over what items get lumped together as money, but paper currency and deposits usually make the grade. If we want to convert the things that we've produced into desirable consumption goods (or long-term savings vehicles like stocks), we need to pass through this intervening "money" medium to get there. This of course is fiction—there never has been an item that served as a universal medium of exchange. Rather, all valuable things serve to some degree or other as a medium of exchange; or, put differently, everything is money. What follows are several examples illustrating this idea. Rather than using currency/deposits as the intervening medium to get to their desired final...

Buoyant Ireland

Nick Rowe is pessimistic , and points to one of the dreariest articles I've read to date on the Europe situation. I noticed that Ireland seems to be doing much better than the other peripherals. See the chart below. Its stock market is relatively strong, having outperformed markets in Greece, Italy, and Spain while keeping up to the German DAX. At the same time, Ireland isn't seeing capital outflows anymore. While Greece, Spain and Italy's TARGET2 balance is deteriorating, Ireland's has been improving for over a year. (Note that data is to end of April). ( click here for expanded version) What are the Irish doing differently? Is Ireland presaging how the other peripherals might be stabilized, or are they just lagging behind? Note: For one explanation of the difference, see this Allied Irish Bank report ( pdf ).