Skip to main content

No need to ban cash to avoid the zero-lower bound problem


Tyler Cowen and Scott Sumner discuss the idea of abolishing central bank-issued cash. The existence of cash can create problems for monetary policy. Say a central bank wants to reduce the rate it pays on central bank deposits to below zero. If it did so, everyone would immediately convert deposits into cash, since owning 0% yielding paper notes is better than owning an instrument that pays a penalty rate. There appears to be a zero-lower bound to the interest rate on deposits. Ban cash and you might remove that bound.

Tyler points out that the alternative to an outright ban is to put a Silvio Gesell-style tax on cash that brings a bank note's yield to something below 0%. This way, no one will prefer cash to negative yielding deposits. But as he points out, this is slightly "goofy" since it requires serial numbers and scans on all paper notes.

There is a simple alternative that doesn't require a ban, nor does it require that all cash carry sensors, serial numbers, or whatnot. Instead, the central bank can reduce the convenience of cash by constricting the denominations of currency it issues. The Federal Reserve currently prints notes in denominations of $1, $5, $10, $20, $50 and $100. Say that the Fed reduces the rate it pays on deposits to -2%. Households, small businesses, large corporations, and banks flock to turn in all their deposits for bills. The kicker is, the Fed will only provide them with cash in $5s.

This imposes a real burden on people because it is more expensive to hold $5s than it is $100s. Banks keep their cash in vaults, but these vaults have been designed to store thousands of $100s, not hundreds of thousands of $5s. Given this inconvenience, deposit holders will be less willing to flee -2% interest rates by moving to cash. Gone is the zero-lower bound problem.

I pointed out here that one problem with this policy is that the entire cash-using sector, particular criminals, might Euroize. Rather than hold, say, thirty US$5 bills, or US$150 in -2% deposits people might choose to hold one €100 bill. This decline in the dollar's "brand" would in turn hurt seignorage earned by the Fed.

In any case, the core issue here is how to reduce the attractiveness of central bank liabilities in a world in which central banks issue two types - cash and deposits. Reducing interest rates on deposits below 0% works only as long as you simultaneously hurt the convenience of cash by doing something like only issuing $5s (or putting a Gesell tax on cash). Alternatively,one can reduce the attractiveness of both notes and deposits in one fell swoop by doing what Scott Sumner advocates: promise to reduce the future purchasing power of all central bank liabilities. I'm on the fence about policy implications of all of this. I'm a macroeconomic agnostic, for the time being at least. But I think the zero-low bound problem is probably an over-exaggerated problem.

Updates: Bill Woolsey has an excellent post on this debate. Other things that can be done to avoid the zero-lower bound apart from taxing or banning cash include ceasing redemptions of deposits for cash. Banks can threaten holders of cash to deposit it now or deposit it later at a discount. Bill also notes that if the quality of bank notes is reduced by making them junior claims on bank assets, then senior claims like deposits can easily yield negative amounts without causing a rush to cash.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Stock as a medium of exchange

American Depository Receipt (ADR) for Sony Corp You've heard the story before. It goes something like this. There's one unique good in this world that serves as a universal vehicle by which we conduct every one of our economic transactions. We call this good "money". Quarrels often start over what items get lumped together as money, but paper currency and deposits usually make the grade. If we want to convert the things that we've produced into desirable consumption goods (or long-term savings vehicles like stocks), we need to pass through this intervening "money" medium to get there. This of course is fiction—there never has been an item that served as a universal medium of exchange. Rather, all valuable things serve to some degree or other as a medium of exchange; or, put differently, everything is money. What follows are several examples illustrating this idea. Rather than using currency/deposits as the intervening medium to get to their desired final...

Yap stones and the myth of fiat money

At first glance, the large circular discs that circulated on the island of Yap in the South Pacific certainly seem quite odd. Too big to be easily transported, the stones are often seen in photos resting against their owner's houses. So much for velocity. Yap stones have been considered significant enough that they have become a recurring motif in monetary economics. Macroeconomics textbooks, including Baumol & Blinder , Miles & Scott ( pdf ), Stonecash/Gans/King/Mankiw , Williamson , and Taylor all have stories about Yap stone money. Why this fascination? Part of it is probably due to the profession's obsession with the categorical divide between "money" and "non-money". In dividing the universe of goods into these two bins, only a few select goods end up in the money bin. That an object so odd and unwieldy as a three meter wide stone could join slim US dollar bills and easily portable silver coins in the category of money is pleasantly counterintu...

Chain splits under a Bitcoin monetary standard

The recent bitcoin chain split got me thinking again about bitcoin-as-money, specifically as a unit of account . If bitcoin were to serve as a major pricing unit for commerce on the internet, we'd have to get used to some very strange macroeconomic effects every time a chain split occurred. In this post I investigate what this would look like. While true believers claim that bitcoin's destiny is to replace the U.S. dollar, bitcoin has a long way to go. For one, it hasn't yet become a generally-accepted medium of exchange. People who own it are too afraid to spend it lest they miss out on the next boom in its price, and would-be recipients are too shy to accept it given its incredible volatility. So usage of bitcoin has been confined to a very narrow range of transactions. But let's say that down the road bitcoin does become a generally-accepted medium of exchange. The next stage to becoming a full fledged currency like the U.S. dollar involves becoming a unit of account...